EIA data shows that overall feedstock use was up 15% in Oct24 vs. the year prior, with Yellow Grease showing the biggest drop in the mix, -10.6% vs. the month prior year. Soybean oil use was up 13.45% vs. the month prior year. EIA showed no changes in capacity. The 2-month delayed data from EIA confirms a strong end-of-year finish for the Biodiesel Tax Credit. BOGO is now down 37% in the last 3 months, with today dropping nearly 2 standard deviations to +$201/mt. Meanwhile, FAME trades in ARAG at +$452 over ICE gasoil, and the market is showing a contango from Q1 to Q2 in both premiums and flat price. Gross margins in Europe for FAME are $116/mt, while for RME it is $117/mt. Gasoil is now trading just above its 50-day DWMA despite heat crack margin above $25/brl, while the Soybean oil chart remains quite ugly as uncertainty in the US remains for 45z under IRA. D4 RINs trade at $0.63, while RD screen crush finished the year at -1.30/gal (this includes $1 CFPC), meaning RD producers must have better margins to produce in 2025, and this is why the Soyoil perspective remains bleak.
Comments