Carrying charges for soyoil are now nearly -0.42 through May 25, reflecting the end of BTC and the advent of CFPC uncertainties under IRA. This is nearly a $10/mt incentive to store soyoil through May. Europe has a contango of 5 Euro/mt through May based on spot Rotterdam prices today. Gasoil is supporting prices for now following sanctions with backwardation to April at nearly +$19/mt, while the flat price of ULSD on ICE is at $762.50 or $82.50/mt higher than last year's settlement. RME premiums tumbled today to +475/mt over ICE gasoil with a narrowing gross margin to $96/mt. UCOME values weakened as well to +669.50 over ICE gasoil, and the gross margin is also narrower at $274/mt. UCO prices have not moved much since the announcement of the possible exclusion of imported UCO in US 45z guidance - this will be taken up in public discussion through April 10. There is a lot of BTC nostalgia in US industry going around with added complications of figuring out CI under 45z. In the meantime, there should be more China UCO available for Europe for Q1 and perhaps even Q2. D4 RINs remain strong in the face of guidance uncertainty at 0.735 c/gal, with LCFS values stable at $74/mt. SAF prices in NWE, where the mandate is in effect, remain under pressure with a premium over ICE gasoil at +$1035/mt with a flat price of $1861/mt -- SAF was priced at $2086/mt FOB ARAG FP just before Christmas on December 19!
Comments