Despite blowout crush figures by NOPA at 186 M Bushels was +12% y-o-y but the impact is having a much more important role in Meal price which is down 15% in the last 3 months. The increasing use of high carbon intensity waste oils and technical oils is having a large impact in the use of soybean oil in the US by the renewable diesel/Biodiesel producers which is going to be a continuing bearish factor for oil. It is not only the imports of UCO from China that are impactful but increasing use of Tallow and Canola oil. Rumors of a push to ban UCO imports from China was rampant late last week but carbon intensity will remain the biggest detractor for Soyoil until it is improved at the farm level. D4 RINs had no reaction to the rumor trading at 0.567 signalling that rumor is far fetched at this point although managed money position on soybeans and soybean oil has now changed direction with exception of Soybean meal.
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