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Writer's pictureHenri Bardon

Soybean oil rise one std deviation and nearly +20% in last 3 months


Despite strong crush margins 1.59 ($58.45/mt) Soyoil rallies to 1.54X gasoil value similar pattern we saw in Nov22 in very different circumstances. Argentina plantings reach 20% while production forecast now raised to 52 Mil MT. Paranagua Soyoil premiums remain firm in the +500/+800 area in this out-season portion of the year with new crop -200/even. Meanwhile in NWE barge market for Biodiesel F0 premium stabilize a bit to +600 or $1280/mt. Nearby backwardation for cash barges rise for both F0 and RME to +60 and +80 respectively. Only notable news in Europe seems to be data that Ukraine shipped a record amount of grains/oilseeds last month at 5.28 Mil MT with notably significant quantity of Soybeans 716kt, Rapeseed 475kt and sunflower oil 458kt headed mostly to EU. Soyoil remains cheapest soft oil in dutch markets at $76/mt discount to Rapeseed oil and $150/mt discount to SFO. Gross replacement Margin for F0 is about $141/mt while for RME Gross replacement margin is $164/mt. In the US screen biodiesel crush margins has taken a dive to nearly -$1 gallon while D4 RINs trade at nearly 0.80 /gal reflecting general mood in industry after elections.



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