Once again, rapeseed is being imported into the EU at a record pace, and we can expect Canadian imports to reach the EU in Q4 considering the large and ample harvest, while Canadians still face export restrictions to China. Ukraine temporarily holds a 68% market share of imports into the EU for the moment. Prices of RSO will eventually be under pressure, especially since Canadian canola is genetically modified and more suited for biofuels. Northwest Europe markets for biodiesel did not see much activity on Friday, but the large FAME premium over BOGO remains high at $168/mt, albeit lower than what we have seen - this writer expects a much lower premium as we move into early 2025. Additionally, lower diesel consumption in Germany (as discussed in a previous post) and France should continue to put both biodiesel and feedstocks under pressure. Gross margins on RME (winter biodiesel) remain healthy at $104/mt. The soybean oil chart remains quite bearish (similar to the gasoil chart), while cash premiums in Paranagua are very strong, showing 500 Vs 700 offered in Q4, while the new crop for April/May is bid at -200. Argentina's crop planting is being delayed by dry weather, while the State of Mato Grosso in Brazil predicts a 65 million MT soy crop.
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