with Kaub water levels headed down again by next week, we are going to see continuing navigation problems on Rhine and continued reliance by Biodiesel trade on spot values in ARA market. Destination of Biodiesel from Germany reflects the reliance of producers and traders on the NorthWest Europe spot market. German exports have also been strong especially to US only limited by EPA approved facilities. Backwardation in UCOME values in ARA q3/q4 are +$152/mt and still +$100/mt for q4/q2. RME values on the spot are $1371/mt while Rapeseed Oil is $1048 allowing for good producer margins but backwardation to q4 is $100/mt on flat price. FAME 0 whose flat price value is $1346/mt now attempting to build a contango in premiums q4/q2 but still showing a +$27/mt backwardation on the spot. The situation on navigation is also going to maroon supplies of Gasoil if it continues - 5 year average low Rhine water levels usually happen in early Oct.
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