Although today's released data is nearly 2 months old and excludes UCO, it shows trends in RD/Biodiesel that indicate an overall drop of 7% in year-over-year feedstock use, led by a 12% decrease in soybean oil usage. Yellow grease usage dropped almost 10% year-over-year, followed by tallow with a drop of nearly 3% year-over-year. This seems consistent with what has been observed: the industry has been preparing for a marked reduction in exposure towards the end of the year in preparation for the change-over to 45z rules. This does not change the overall fact that soybean oil cumulative usage through September is only down 0.5% in 2024 compared to 2023, while tallow usage is up 28% and yellow grease is up 16%. The largest cumulative increase in feedstock usage belongs to canola/rapeseed oil, which reached a +29% increase compared to 2023, largely due to increasing canola production and crush capacity in North America. Biodiesel screen crush, including BTC, remains strong at -49 cents per gallon, not inclusive of RINs that are still 0.57 cents per gallon, leaving a comfortable contribution to margins for 2024 and especially for renewable diesel. Nevertheless, none of this is good news for Soybean oil which is still under pressure.
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