As ICE Gasoil expired at $664.50 with much fewer deliveries than expected, it should be noted that Oct expired at $706. The trend for commodities is clear and especially now with a much stronger US$ after elections in the US. China COFCO adding water to BOGO waterfall indicating that their 2025 Soybean imports could be 10% lower - that is 10 Mil MT less from either Brazil or US - not bullish. BOGO is now trading at +323/mt when a week ago we were at +$406/mt. Northwest Europe barge trade was muted in a climate of general uncertainty with RME trading at +795/mt over ICE gasoil and a flat price of $1461 in a +$76/mt backwarded spot market. Soybean oil remains the cheapest soft oil in Europe at $69/mt discount to Rapeseed oil. Gross replacement margin for RME is a stupendous $206/mt and much higher if you replace in Jan25. We should see a significant adjustment of premiums by the end of this week. On the US side, the talk has now twisted to lobbying for the BTC before the end of the year. Congress is in session and has essentially 5 weeks of work left to sort out the budget by Dec 20 and the debt ceiling issue before Jan 1. This writer believes that the current admin intends pushing a lot of $ during the lame-duck session that will inevitably lead to a deadlock, which is the only way for the new administration to curtail runaway spending. The only way out would be to push CR past inauguration, but then that would allow the additional lame-duck spending. A very complex political situation that probably requires excess caution. Despite this, $ may remain strong as lower spending can only strengthen it.
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