Although this behavior is consistent, it keeps a significant chunk of RINs liability on the books that refiners are keeping just in case they get a legal/political win and eventual write-off on this with the next Admin. With Renewable Diesel ramp-up this quarter, it is unlikely to make much of a difference since US is currently over-generating RINs. Demand for domestic Bean oil remains strong keeping BOHO at 1.96c/gallon or +$600/mt and supporting RINs value but something has to give at some point which is much probably in Q4. US has now decoupled from the international market of vegetable oil but once the reversal happens, it will be equally violent. For now Admin has shelved the EV RINs for the duration of the Presidential campaign so we cannot expect any more pressure on RINs from this side although this matter will come back into consideration as registration of new EV continues at a brisk pace particularly on West Coast. It is clear to most that RFS is in need of a major legal and operational update by Congress to be sustainable but doubt anyone will risk it politically so lawyers will fight it out in court.
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