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Henri Bardon
Jul 18, 20231 min read
Biodiesel explodes as Rhine River forecast slows navigation in EU
Flat price level in Northwest Europe for Biodiesel exploded higher to nearly $1500 on UCOME or $744 over ICE gasoil. We have not seen...
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Henri Bardon
Jul 17, 20231 min read
Bean oil futures have destroyed Biodiesel crush margins for Q4
Bean oil as expressed as a % of Gasoil has reached 1.85 up nearly 18% in last 3 months. Although prior to this spike, we can deduce that...
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Henri Bardon
Jul 10, 20231 min read
World production of Vegetable oils just keeps going higher
Despite this abundance of Vegetable oils, oilshare has gone from 35% to 45% in the last 2 months. US renewable diesel ramp up continues...
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Henri Bardon
Jul 5, 20231 min read
US Bean oil disconnects from world market with implied volatility spiking to 40% in options
Bean oil/Palm oil (BOPO) futures spread has gone to $678/mt since early Jun in an unprecedented spike in Bean oil. Best bids for FOB...
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Henri Bardon
Jun 26, 20231 min read
Soy Crush margin on screen drops 25% in first half of year
Crush margin remains quite healthy on screen at 1.50 or $55/mt by historical standards insuring continuing supplies from crushers. ...
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Henri Bardon
Jun 22, 20231 min read
Gasoil adds to bearishness despite tight NWE markets and BOGO strengthens
Volatility in physical markets has returned. BOGO which had spiked to nearly +600 is now back under 500 while FAME market is still...
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Henri Bardon
Jun 21, 20231 min read
Bean oil dives limit-down nearly 7% after US Admin sets Biofuels mandate lower than market expected
Hope never dies. After Admin took the EV RINs off the table 3 weeks ago, there was much hope for higher biofuels mandates but that...
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Henri Bardon
Jun 13, 20231 min read
World production of Biodiesel/HVO jumps to 55 Mil Mt as US leads growth together with Indonesia
EU biofuels blending is stagnating as EU-27 attempting to rely on waste feedstocks with double-counting feature to encourage use. This,...
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Henri Bardon
Jun 1, 20231 min read
Big end-of-month drop in RINs
Despite good US biodiesel and RD margins it appears we had some rearranging of positions on RINs. Although US doing well in an...
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Henri Bardon
May 24, 20231 min read
EPA advises against EV RINs ahead of Jun14 RVO White House recommendations
So much work wasted to assimilate EV RINs into RFS are now docked into oblivion despite Dept of Energy pushing for it to especially help...
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Henri Bardon
May 23, 20231 min read
Gasoil backwardation returns but for how long?
Jun/Dec was at -7.75/mt contango on May 3 and we are now back to +7. Quite a move ahead of memorial day. On the biodiesel market in...
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Henri Bardon
May 19, 20231 min read
Gasoil remains flat while Jun/Dec backwardation down 46% in last 3 months
Heat crack margin on screen remains at $23/brl while 3:2:1 is $33/brl. Something has to give and all eyes remain on Asia where China is...
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Henri Bardon
May 17, 20231 min read
BOGO falls nearly $100/mt in two session, still >$100 to go
Bean oil weakness accelerated as there are no real support left after breaking 50dma and 200dma closing at 47 c/lbs. My feeling is that...
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Henri Bardon
May 15, 20231 min read
Bean oil collapses after WASDE
Difficult to see where next support is for Bean oil at this stage as technical damage is serious. FOB premium in Paranagua did not move...
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Henri Bardon
May 12, 20231 min read
FAME 0 premium to Gasoil down $117/mt since Apr28 while Gasoil is flat
Margins frozen at breakeven on screen at -0.94c/gal but negative on a cashflow basis for US producers as Renewable diesel cannibalizes...
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Henri Bardon
May 5, 20231 min read
ICE Gasoil curve bounces back with renewed geopolitical tensions
We did experience a total collapse of the ICE Gasoil curve to Dec from nearly +$50 at end of January to -$8 just a few days ago....
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Henri Bardon
May 3, 20231 min read
Despite biofuels ban for palm in EU, palm prices at parity with Sunoil and Rapeseed oil
Within soft oil complex Rapeseed oil remains the cheapest oil in Europe. Generally speaking we should be expecting that Palm oil be at...
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Henri Bardon
May 1, 20231 min read
Admin delays approval of eRINs : RFS at risk
US Admin delays decision on approval of eRINs as they fear backlash from farming states. RINs have already come down substantially as...
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Henri Bardon
Apr 23, 20231 min read
Heat crack now under $30/Brl as Gasoil trades well below 200wma
Gasoil now trading well below 200wma with 20wma about to cross it. Situation in Europe remains on edge of catastrophe with strikes in...
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Henri Bardon
Apr 11, 20231 min read
Soybean oil careening down further led by SouthAm premium
The soy oil chart just simply is ugly and all indicators point to further downside. premiums FOB paranagua showed even more weakness...
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